Why is weather so important to the LNG marketplace?

Lucy Cullen's picture
Lucy Cullen, Senior Research Analyst, Global Gas Supply, Wood Mackenzie
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The LNG supply profile is changing. LNG output is higher at cooler ambient temperatures, a consequence of the liquefaction process, and new projects are coming onstream in areas with greater climatic variation. How will weather drive the seasonality of LNG supply and what are the impacts on the LNG market? (Click here to view image full screen).

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Technology and changing geography: LNG output is higher at cooler temperatures. The refrigeration compressor driver and cooling medium used during liquefaction are sensitive to temperature, with as little as 1 ºC change in ambient temperature potentially impacting LNG output.

With new liquefaction facilities spreading across a wider geography, climate variation will also come into play. Historically, liquefaction projects have been concentrated in desert or tropical regions with limited temperature variation. The main exceptions are more recent projects, Snøhvit and Sakhalin in the Arctic. As a result, weather will increasingly drive the seasonality of LNG supply.

In this video, Lucy drills into some of the nuances for the Asian LNG market:

Read more on LNG seasonality changes in LNG Seasonality: the growing impact of weather.

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